As the housing market weakens and deflates consumers' will to spend, the New York Times reports that business will have to take up the slack if the economy is to stay healthy.

The stock market is tepid and the inverted yield curve in the bond market (short-term rates are higher than long-term rates) is a big hint that a recession may be on the way.

"Despite some worrisome indicators, only a handful of the 53 economists surveyed by Blue Chip Economic Indicators predict that the growth rate in 2006 will drop much below the 3.7 percent average so far this year," reports the paper. And most of the optimistic economists say business spending from this year's healthy profits will keep things humming along.

But the rosy scenario also assumes that consumer spending won't take too much of a hit. We'll have to see.