As the college basketball season is about to wash over us, we have some disheartening news about the probity of the game. Forensic economist Justin Wolfers claims to have evidence that college games with a big spread are fixed, reports the New York Times.

The economist has crunched the numbers for every game in the last 16 years. He finds that games with a marked favorite and wide points spread are more likely to have the favorite win by a narrow margin than games where the spread is narrow. Games with a spread of 12 points or less broke evenly because odds makers know what they’re doing. On the other hamd, only 47 percent of heavy favorites make their numbers.

The explanation for this result, which cannot be random, is that college players are deliberately shaving points so they can beat their opponents and stay within the spread. Wolfers claims that 5 percent of games are fixed in this way.

Plenty of people are skeptical Hilton oddsmaker Jay Kornegay calls it “ludicrous.” And past scandals have worked this way, although no one has crunched this many NBA scores before