The economists and the people never seem quite able to get on the same page. Some economists at UCLA are predicting an economic slowdown, reports the Los Angeles Times. But the Associated Press reports that consumer confidence is soaring.

The Conference Board said that its consumer index shot up 4.5 points to 107.2, the highest level since May 2002, when the reading was 110.3. Experts were predicting a much lower number. Low unemployment has got to be helping, I suppose, but in the West the news is not as good as it has been.

"We see the housing crunch as a force that will slow growth, not stop it," UCLA Economist Christopher Thornberg told the Times. That reinforces news from major home builder Lennar, which reported a 34 percent jump in profit. That only came, however, because of a strong housing sector in the Midwest. Lennar is just one of a number of home builders that are anticipating slower growth in the West because high prices have finally put the brakes on the housing boom.

The Times reports that UCLA has long been saying housing would slow but had not been able to pinpoint the timing. Now it seems to be happening for sure. "The only debate now is how hard a landing there will be and what will it mean for the general economy," said Thornberg. If construction slows in the Golden State, it might help ease the labor crunch in commercial construction in Las Vegas.

And the other question for us is if California is sneezing, will we catch a cold? Our own housing sector seems to be slowing and tourism has benefited enormously from Southern California drive-in business, so we may be in for the chills.