There’s news for every mood in three government reports that are in the news today. If you’re bullish, take a look at the latest GDP numbers. The Associated Press reports that the economy grew at an annual rate of 5.3 percent in the first quarter.
That’s the best number in over two years an is up half a percent on the original estimate the Commerce Department published last month. The upgrade mostly reflected “stronger U.S. exports and better inventory building by businesses,” according to the news service.
Economists had predicted that the upgrade would be even better - up a full percentage point. Both business and consumer spending was up for the quarter, defying earlier predictions that consumers would be pulling back and that business spending would have to carry the load.
Economists are predicting a strong second quarter with about 3 percent growth. The big factor that may drag performance down is the faltering housing sector.
And that brings us to the news for the bears. The New York Times characterizes two reports issued on Wednesday as negative.
Housing sales were up 4.9 percent, which was a surprise, but the market seemed to be cooling even more with expanded inventory and prices that were steady at best. The other bad news was the durable goods results which took a 4.8 nosedive, appropriately enough because of a big drop in aircraft orders.
Enough already! The whole economy doesn’t hang on whether Boeing is getting big orders or not so this component of the durable goods orders should be like food and energy in the CPI - taken out. As one economist tells the paper, this is one of the most volatile series in all the data and one that isn’t telling us that much. The real impact of aircraft orders is on the trade balance.
So going forward? Well, it looks like it’s all up to the Fed and it’s hard, really hard, to predict which numbers the bankers will focus on when they decide in a month’s time whether to keep that ratchet on interest rates moving up.

