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Las Vegas Business Press
Wednesday, October 15, 2008
Incomes up but we’re still cautious

By Ian Mylchreest
October 31, 2006

Personal income rose by 0.5 percent in September but there was barely an increase in spending as consumers tried to pay down debt and put a little bit aside, reports the New York Times. The national savings rate is still in the red but a little less so after September.

That should add up to a boost for 4th quarter GDP, say economists. But isn’t this really just privatized deficit spending by another name?

And inflation is still a problem. Eventually the Fed will have to pay attention to its lone inflation hawk, Jeffrey Lacker, who has insisted on rate rises when the rest of the rate setters sat on their hands. The Richmond banker is right when he says inflation is uncomfortably high. The Fed will have to bring its actions into line with its guidelines, won’t it? That’s 1 percent for the core rate of inflation - everything without the energy and food thrown in.

And in numbers released Tuesday morning, we can see why the big spenders are staying out of the malls and the car dealerships. The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index slipped by half a point to 105.4 for September, reports the Associated Press.

There is a declining sense of confidence even though it’s a strong economy by most measures. The Conference Board explained the numbers by saying that there was anxiety about jobs despite falling gas prices. That’s the real problem for Republicans. They haven’t been able to convince many average voters that things really are good because of stagnant wages and job insecurity. Those two things are the most tangible means by which voters are in touch with the economy.





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