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Steve Sebelius is editor of CityLife, and a longtime resident of Las Vegas. He’s worked as a reporter for the Las Vegas Sun, a writer for CityLife, and as a political columnist for the Las Vegas Review-Journal. He was born and raised in Southern California, and returns regularly for fun in the sun where it’s not 116 degrees and where the “water feature” is named the “Pacific Ocean.” In addition to politics, he enjoys movies, fine wine, fine cigars, fine restaurants, television and books of all kinds. He blogs most every weekday.

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Bad news for progressives

Friday’s Review-Journal brought bad news for progressives: Both anti-tax measures that may be circulated for the 2006 ballot look likely to pass.

One, the Property Tax Restraint Initiative that would institute Proposition 13-style limits on property taxes in Nevada, was favored by 62 percent, opposed by 21 percent, with 17 percent undecided. This measure is being circulated by Assemblywoman Sharron Angle, who is running for Congress. (The silver lining: Angle’s candidacy is running last in the polls behind Secretary of State Dean Heller and former Assemblywoman Dawn Gibbons.

The other initiative, dubbed the Tax and Spending Control Initiative, is favored by 58 percent, opposed by 21 percent with an additional 21 percent undecided, according to the poll. Backers, including state Sen. Bob Beers, a candidate for governor, are waiting to see what happens in Colorado today, where voters will decide whether to suspend a very similar measure, dubbed TABOR for Taxpayer Bill of Rights. If TABOR is suspended, the campaign here in Nevada could be undermined somewhat.

(Side note: Notice a pattern? Almost every Republican running for governor has their very own initiative riding shotgun. U.S. Rep. Jim Gibbons, don’t forget, has the placebo Education First initiative at his back.)

What do the numbers mean? That taxes are very unpopular, and measures to limit them are very popular. This isn’t just a matter of winning over undecided voters; to defeat these measures, opponents are going to have to unconvert some anti-tax converts. And that’s not an easy proposition. “It will take a well-funded campaign,” says Brad Coker, the R-J’s pollster.

“We are witnessing the evolution of government. The people are going to take power from elected officials and impose direct democracy,” says Beers. We’re more of an intelligent design stance than an evolutionary stance on this one, since the campaign against “taxes” never seems to get around to exactly what we’d have to do without if those taxes are cut. And that, readers, is the key to defeating these measures.

“When people are afforded the full picture and told what they would do to existing services, those numbers will change,” Gov. Kenny Guinn’s chief of staff, Michael Hillerby, told the R-J.

The thing is, people aren’t going to be told by the R-J, which has been at the forefront of the cut taxes movement. So that leaves it up to progressives to make mention of the facts in any forum they can: When you cut property taxes, you cut into the revenue that funds local schools, police departments, fire departments and the guys who put up street lights, fix potholes and build roads.

(Another side note: The author of the R-J story, Capitol Bureau reporter Ed Vogel, continued his unholy journalistic love affair with the poster-boy for political incompetence, George Harris, quoting the flannel-clad failure as saying the Tax and Spending Control (TASC) people should change the initiative’s name to TABOR instead. We don’t know why Harris’ name comes up so often in Vogel’s stories, since Harris has never been successful at any political initiative, but we’re thinking Harris has got some damn incriminating photos.)

But let’s play the Harris game. Instead of the Property Tax Restraint Initiative, let’s call it “Sharron Angle’s War on Cops, Teachers and Firefighters Initiative.” And instead of TASC or TABOR, let’s call Beers’ plan ENIALIE, for Ensuring Nevada Is Always Last In Everything.

Both have nice rings, we think.

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2 Responses to “Bad news for progressives”

True enough. And on election day, reality and the R-J poll numbers are not always in the same time zone.

Written by: Steve Sebelius on Monday, Oct. 31, 2005 at 7:26 PM

Where we progressives might take heart is that the R-J and its pollster have a history of somehow managing to make issue-related polls come out the way the paper wants.

Written by: Michael Green on Monday, Oct. 31, 2005 at 4:46 PM
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